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09/06/2010 - Pittsburgh, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Neil Walker's two-run homer in the sixth inning proved to be the difference, as the Pittsburgh Pirates edged the Atlanta Braves, 3-1, in the opener of a three-game set at PNC Park.
Jose Tabata added a single, RBI and scored a run for Pittsburgh, which had dropped seven of nine entering the contest.
Brian Burres (3-3), starting for Jeff Karstens, who was unable to go due to right shoulder soreness, gave his club a solid six-inning outing. The lefty yielded one run on five hits, struck out three and did not walk a batter in making his first start since May 29. Joel Hanrahan worked a scoreless ninth to record his fourth save of the season.
Derrek Lee went 2-for-3 with a run scored on his 35th birthday, while David Ross supplied the only offense with a sacrifice fly for the Braves, who have lost four of five, but still sit atop the National League East by one game over Philadelphia. The Phillies dropped the opener of a day/night doubleheader to Florida on Monday.
Tommy Hanson (9-11) suffered the loss after allowing three runs -- two earned -- on four hits and a pair of walks in six innings. The right-hander struck out four.
Tabata's RBI groundout in the first scored Andrew McCutchen, who led off with a walk, stole second and advanced to third on an error by catcher Ross, giving the Pirates an early lead.
The Braves loaded the bases with nobody out in the second and pulled even on Ross' sac fly. Burres worked out of further damage by retiring the next two hitters.
Starting pitching limited the offensive chances, but Lee and Matt Diaz reached on back-to-back two-out singles in the sixth. After a brief mound visit by Pirates manager John Russell, Burres stayed in and got Alex Gonzalez to bounce into a fielder's choice to end the inning.
In the home sixth, Tabata led off with a single and scored when Walker hammered a fastball over the fence in straightaway center to put the Pirates up 3-1. It gave Walker a 13-game hitting streak.
Chris Resop took over for Burress in the seventh and proceeded to load the bases with two outs on a single and two walks, but Martin Prado grounded out weakly to third to end the threat.
The Braves put runners on second and third with two outs in the eighth off Evan Meek, but again came up empty when Nate McLouth grounded out to first.
Hanrahan came on for the top of the ninth and gave up a two-out single to Jason Heyward before setting down Prado on a fly ball to right that ended the game.
Game Notes
Despite the loss, Atlanta has still won eight of the last 12 overall meetings between the teams...The Braves went 0-for-6 with runners in scoring position and stranded 10, while Pittsburgh left only three men on base.
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The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.
"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."
Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.
"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."
When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:
CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.
DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.
PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.
You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.
"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."
Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.
(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)
Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."
But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."
Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."
Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."
All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.
In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.
"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."
To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.
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